Here’s the problem with it. The final sectional was amazing BUT it came off an average overall racetime on a day when near record times were run in other races. Can it win?? Yes it can , any of the runners can if things pan out the right way. With a few showers forecast today it looks like the only effect will be to save the course manager watering so look to a Good 3 for the Cup. You’ll see my workings out in the Youtube video below and you will see that for the first time I have not been able to use the GTX program to come to my conclusions. I have done everything the traditional way, by hand. It still comes out the same. I do belive that Hartnell is racing better than anything and far above what he did last year and I have had to use some of last years figures to rate a couple of old stagers, bearing in mind that they are english bred to a different age. I do believe the Japanese runner is too old though. I rate Oceanographer 6th. And for the first time I believe there is a possibility of a UK horse winning at his first attempt on Australian soil.