We had a good bet today Taree Race 4 no 1. It won at $1.10. Seriously that was not a good bet because the strike rate of those selections as a whole is 30%. Obvioulsy someone knew that it was ready to win and the form backed it up but not to that extent. In fact I have seen many of these runners lose and in one case last week it ran last but I wasnt on it of course.
Ye s a horse can be calsses above the rest but anyhting can happen, a horse is startled in the barrier an is slow out, another runner improves unexpectedly. These are all things you need to take account of. Walking across a road, even in a pedestrian crossing , can be very very dangerous even though 99% of the time you would expect to cross without incident but a trip, a loose stone, a faint anything can and does happen every day somewhere.
No . Try to value every selection and make sure the risk is worth the effort.