What a difference a week makes. Last weekend we had a punting feast at our feet & I know for sure and certain Derby Day I will be having a red hot go on many races. However in my opinion only I think the Cox Plate Day this year is a very disappointing program.
The Cox Plate itself is a fantastic line up but the rest of the fields lack depth & value. Even the Mankato Stakes is not a vintage line up. The last few years the Mankato has been a cracker.
I was lucky enough to get the 2018 winner – Brave Smash at good odds. So my advice is to be wary this weekend and stake / bet accordingly.
I personally will just be betting the following four races.
|M. Valley||G1||Manikato Stakes||1200m||WFA|
|M. Valley||G1||WS Cox Plate||2040m||WFA|
|M. Valley||G2||Crystal Mile||1600m||WFA|
|Randwick||G3||The Nivison||1200m||Mares – SW+P|
- Troope @ $11.00
Every rating service & tipster will have Bivouac on top will good reason. He might bolt in but is it value at at $1.85 not for mine. I have taken a gamble on Troope @ $11.00 odds boosted. He has run time & has a bit of X- Factor. But my stake is reduced in this race as he is not top rated that honour goes to Bivouac.
I see no value in any exactas or quinellas unless the hot shot misses the placings. However I did take an early all up Troope into my Cox Plate Horse Te Akau Shark. I got odds of 190/1.
Now even if you don’t want to have a straight bet against Bivouac an all up even for the small pub punter can reap a brilliant return here for just $11 outlay = $2090 – all you have to do is win both Group ones “easy” right ?!
- Te Akau Shark $20.00
The second the final field was declared after barrier draws etc. I jumped on with a maximum bet in the Plate Tuesday (1st markets) I grabbed Te Akau Shark @ $20.00 Yes the barrier draw will make it tough ( he will get back ) but I can’t tell you how big races I have collected from wide draws. I would soon that than being cluttered up in Barrier one at a reduced price.
I’m banking on the ratings out of the Epsom Hcp. Pinker Pinker & Winx both came from last start Epsom Runs to win the Cox Plate. He goes into it 4th up like Winx , Makybe Diva , Ocean Park & so You Think.
Kolding was rated on top and ran super & the Epsom rated very highly but Te Akau Shark had the best sectional splits of wait for it “1000/800//600/400/200m. The final 200 in 11:75
He started from barrier 15 , Kolding barrier 12 & third place getter Star of The Seas 13. I will be working some exotics around Te Akau Shark & Castelvecchio & Mystic Journey. Most probably an Exacta & F4
There is some depth in this race in as far as a nice exotica play but again not a vintage Crystal mile.
The three I will work exotics around are:.
- Debt Agent $26.00
- Sikandarabad $7.00
- Madison County $11.00
- Multaja $6.50
I am just having a straight win bet in this race. $6.50 boosted is a good price. He has a great burst of speed and hopefully can get past the favorite.
So it will be a tough day at the office but with just 3 win bets , a couple of exactas & First Fours & one all up , even a wipe out wont dent the betting bank too much -then I will be unloading on derby day were there will be value galore. Hopefully some extra cash from Cox Plate Day will help.
Happy Punting Greg H