|I am reading old edition of optimum, I, m thinking about n 1 in handicap races it said never back above 57kg what weight do you think now, I used to be a subscriber many years ago and loved it.|
My reply to Ian was simple and relates to NOW. With coronovirus weighst have become allowed to be lax so a rider CAN now ride overweight and also minimum weights have been substantially increased since the time the plan refereed to was created.
In 1991 I wrote a book called Race Winning Strategy. Inspired by an article by Alan Rowland the editor of Punters Choice I tried to change our Winform Ratinsg to a level profit strategy. What this means is that you bet each selection to make the same profit and at the time I had some remarkable results.
With overlay betting we would see that a selection we rated at $3 would get $50 on it to return an imaginery $150 and a profit of $100 but of course if the selection got up at $11 we actually make $500. Great!
But gearing instead to the price available and assuming that the price of our rating made the selection an overlay, i.e. it is at least $3 then we would have the $50 still at the $3 on offer OR on the $11 we would have only $10 to make the $100 profit.
The assumption was that this was a better strategy. It’s NOT, and I actually discovered from Ian Barnes who took over the Punters Choice magazine that Alan Rowland had told him that it didn’t actually work but that fact was not published anywhere and so I went into the deep unknown thinking,and my results at the time seemed to back the theory up, that it was a better method. As it turned out it wasn’t. Two successive losing days of over $10,000 convinced me in the end.
You see after the first Saturday it seemed and aberration but on the next Saturday, the difference was astounding. A $15winner which previously would have had a big bet on it, instead had just $7 on it yet I walked away with an $11,000 loss for the day.
Back then we tried restricting our selections to horses that we rated at $3 or better but these days with the Hotshots we have made it $2 . That doesn’t mean we expect the horse to be an odds on shot or short priced , no we expect we have found horses tat generally win 30% of the time at an average price of around $4 and that it what the record shows since Jan 2015 when new track ratings were introduced , new handicapping systems aka Benchmark etc. and higher minimum weights.
To be honest there are two elements to the Winform Ratings. The price is just one but the more important is the ranking. Many people don’t understand this.
So put it another way. We are saying that the no 1 ranked runner has the best possibility of winning, the second ranked runner the second best and so on. The prices we get are simply the opinions of all the other punters out there and commentators.
This pool of people generally get it about 30% right at a steady loss. We don’t care how oten we get it right. What we care about is how much money we make by following our own opinion. And that’s why we have a soldi core of subscribers, many of whom have been subscribing since the early 90’s and a precious few survivors from the late 80’s.
This March to date we show two sets of results for our hotshots and this is simply the NSWTAB price or Starting Price (ending the 13th) Profit for a level profit is $521 or profit on turnover 43.7%. But for a level stakes outlay profit is $4040 or profit on turnover 90% and at Best Of The Best, well add on an extra say 10%
A subscription that gets these selections costs $220 a month. It is Winform Premium.