I got this from Wade, a new Member and he asks
“Hi Garry
Per the daily feature race, how can Chatauqua be the 5th rated horse in tonight’s Group 1?”
Very easily Wade. It may well win but it just doesn’t rate on the normal terms and this is the problem with Champion horses.
In the end they often still win and that’s because of an indeterminable thing called “heart”.
The problem is that in a lot of cases you can’t measure that and those above him are running much faster than he has in the last prep.
Personally I often just watch these types of races. When Black Caviar was around, I made a ton of money just backing our top rated horses for the place and mostly at two or three times or more the price available around the winner. On March the 12th, for example , Chataqua coudldn’tbeat The Quarterback.In November last year he couldnt beat Delectation, a far inferior horse,from memory we rated the Chat a $5 chance with Lumosty $6 and Delectation about $7. Delectation won at $13. In tonights race Chataqua will need luck to get through the field and will probably go around and yes he might win or run a nostril 2nd butmy money wont be on at that price.
Garry
2 Comments. Leave new
I’ll probably get smashed here, but I do think that the word “champion” is splashed around to easily. Take Black Caviar. Now before you start laughing, I am not ruling her out entirely, but I think there are a few things that need to be taken into account in assessing her.fi
1. Only races in two handicaps. One was her first start.
2. She never started on a track worse than good.
3. Nine of her starts were WFA.
4. Only one race over more than 1200m.
Now you can say “So what, she won them all!” and that’s great. I wish I had a couple like that.
Where I have a slight worry is the type of races she won. I think, for example, that winning that many WFA races is good, but how good were the opposition in those races?
My other main caveat is the lack of handicaps contested. Most horses that I consider to be champions have won multiple handicaps.
I also think that a true champion should be more versatile. That is handles various track conditions, distances, race conditions.
You have to congratulate the trainer for placing the horse to perfection too I guess, but it does at least give pause for reflection in stamping the horse as highly as some others.
I fully agree. You only have to look at “champions” going back many many years (yes as far back as Phar Lap) and you can see what type of races they raced in, what various distances, what weights they carried compared to others in their races, what type of tracks, etc. Yes I know it is very difficult when comparing across different generations but (for me anyway) a Champion needs to cover and succeed across various circumstances. Yes Peter Moody chose those races well.