Ive viewed both Absurde and Vauban and both have had some very good wins….in England. Both are capable of running the distance but both, on past times, would run the 3200 metres in 3.30+. Thats not to say they can’t win. If they have the race run their way, slow pace, unlikely, then they are strong enough at the finish.
Kalapour $51 is a UK horse that based on times run here (very important) can run the 3200 in 3.20.4 if he can run the distance so that query is covered by the fact that it is very very good odds. I made a similar assessment on the 2015 winner at 100/1.
Without a Fight $7 can run 3:20:4 + 1kg weight rise plus bad barrier all up less than 3:21. It didnt run out the distance last year but that was a rain affected track which takes energy out of all horses.
Gold Trip $8 ran 3.24 last year form a wide barrier 15 this year has barrier 2 and only 1 kg more. Allow for the difference in track condition it is right around the 3:20 mark on a good track.
Serpentine, $41 ,like Absurde and Vauban was a brilliant winner by many many lengths overseas but to dat has failed to reproduce that form but has barrier 1so wont be running wide at any stage and all 3 of its wins were on a firm track.
Right You Are $41 was 4 lengths behind in he Caulfield Cup widely drawn but has John Allen on top, a big advantage. No form at the distance and a rough chnace behind the others.
Soulcombe $10 ran very fast at York over 2800 and was even faster at Caulfield after missing the start by 4 lengths. Form barrier 4 today if it misses the start it will be absolutely swamped by runners outside of it. At $10 that’s the biggest risk.
Military Mission $26 is drawn perfectly and can get on the back of front runner Serpentine its stablemate but there is no guarantee it can run the distance.
Breakup $19 is the real query horse. Capable of 3:16 + its a standout Barrier 18 wont help but definitely the fastest horse in the race. Its form this year though is not what it was late last year.
The last one I might include in the exotics is the Adelaide Cup winner Dagiansweetjunior $81
MY CONCLUSION IS
1 GOLD TRIP BECAUSE OF THE PROVEN FORM $7.50 BUT Best of the Best with vicbet.com $15
3 WITHOUT A FIGHT C CUP WINNER FIT AND IN FORM $7 ALSO Best Of The Best $15
4 BREAKUP not in form but best if regains last years form $19 ALSO Best Of The Best $5
23 KALAPOUR inform but distance a query $51 have $2 e/w
Total Outlay $39 but at least $100 back if we get a win.
Exotics. 1/3 to win 1,3,4,6,8,12,17,18,23 Trifecta $11 for 10%
Tough race because of the number of query runners but it should be a very fast pace and yes luck will definitely play a part.