No Perth scratchings impacting our assessments. all good to get out there and bet. We are backing runners in first 5 races at Caulfield and the Cup money back up to $50 in bonusbets if 2nd 3rd or 4th. We will use that money to back runners in later races but of cours eif our selectons win well be happy with that. The drawback? It only applies to fixed price bets, not best totoe or BOB. Each agency has different rules so check. ALSO THE bouses expire in some cases.
Have fun, know I will. My Super Fund is down 25% this week but you know what? Still 50% up for the financial year to date.
Greg Horns book is “old” now, well so am I but you wouldnt suggest I have no knowledge of Racing and Greg Horn sticks by his form analysis as he produced in his best selling book, which, as a special, we have on this week for just $11 (plus $11 P@ H for hard copy) on ebook. Anyhow, here are Gresg assessments for Saturday, and I agree with most of them, You can check the latest video on our channel for mine.
Hello fellow punters.
Garry Robinson has asked me if I would like to give my professional assessments / views on the remaining big race days for the Spring Carnival.
I welcome the opportunity to write & chew the fat with the form assessment with Garry. It has been some 9 years since I worked at Winform & dearly miss the interaction with the Winform Members both over the phone & in the seminars. Apart from my passion analysing Group Racing and making profit from the game my other passion has always been educating fellow punters.
Mind you this game is a great leveller & can make you look a real goose at times or a hero on other occasions. For those members that wondered where both I & my wife Karen ( Greg & Keren Horn ) vanished too , well we headed to Cairns for a sea change in April 2010 and made our home ever since, just loving the tropics.
I call myself more of a semi-professional punter these days as I have wound down operations considerably over the last 5 years due to being banned from the corporates( or bets servery limited ) and a big health scare pushed me into spending a lot of my racing bank profits in some lengthy overseas trips in France Spain Greece & Italy.
I’m a firm believer in spending some racing profits now and again as a reward for effort if you are lucky enough to have had a good year on the punt. So enough about me let’s get stuck into this massive race meeting Saturday.
It is certainly different feel Saturday to the old days when basically straight after the Metropolitan Hcp weekend where the whole focus was just Melbourne for the next four weeks or so and all the best trainers, horses & jockeys completed in the one place
I’m not sure if this Sydney rivalry is a good thing or long term detrimental to racing. Time will tell, but it is just another great example why getting yourself good quality ratings is so vital as seriously it would take me to midnight Friday to do the form manually for this mammoth meeting NSW & VIC.
Thoughts for Saturday
Firstly I must say that I am usually the first person to jump in very early e.g. Thursdays & grab the juicy overlays .At first glance I am convinced that most of these races this w/end will see much betting pricing come race day. The corporates appear very tight arse right now. I would be inclined to bet Best of The Best / Top Fluc if you have those account options avalible.
Having looked at Winforms data & my own there are quite a few races that are very close (which is encouraging) The races that I am eager to bet in for value, confidence & exotic big pay days is as follows:
Randwick R5 The Kosciuszko – Notation $8.00
- Very keen on Notation – I’m backing for the win & exacta with El Mob * Bobbing * Noble Boy
- He has run 2nd of 13 at Newcastle in the G3 Tibbie Stk & 4th of 15 at Wyong in the LR Mona Lisa Stks
Randwick R7 The Everest – Pierata $6.50
- I’m Backing Pierata for the win & exacta with Yes Yes Yes * Classique Legends & Arcadia Queen.
The figures are showing that Pierata is definitely improved from last year when Santa Ana Lane clearly had his measure. On Sept 7th he ran a head behind Redzel carrying 60kg then great effort in good time in the Shorts.
Caulfield R6 Ethereal Stks (G3) – Snapdancer $8.00
- I’m very keen on Snapdancer backing for the win. I’m not sure if the value will hold up for an exacta play so will monitor close to race time.
- If I do indulge it would be Vegas Jewel* Oriental Lily * Leven lass in the exacta.
Snapdancer form comes through Guineas Prelude, which is strong for this race.
Caulfield R9 – Caulfield Cup Grp1 – Vow and Declare $10.00 & Mer de Glace $8.00
Well what we can say about the Cup since 2018. It broke my heart when it changed from a great HCP race to a WFA with a heap of internationals that is almost impossible to do the form on. It’s not a battlers race anymore and almost a lottery for us punters as is the Melbourne Cup (thank god that still a HCP)
But an old adage “the greater the uncertainty the better the price”
I get the same excellent rating figures as winform on Mer de Glace but I don’t think the market has missed it. Because of that I am taking a punt backing Vow and Declare to win which will surely get out in price on race day. However if the pricing reverses I will switch race day. (I doubt it)
Vow and Declare was excellent of a slow tempo at Flem & the run in the Qld Derby was brilliant behind Mr Quickie.
- My Exacta play will be with Mer de Glace* The Chosen One * Finche
- I will also have a crack at the First 4 in the Cup .tossing in Mirage Dancer* Gold Mount* Mirage Dancer
I was pretty annoyed at Finche running 2nd to Kings Will dream last start. I bet Finche to win & had the exacta 33 unit with Kings will dream. Finche loomed up to pass KWDream but then didn’t go past with 50 m to go & KWD won after a 3 yr drought for a Waller Qnl in Grp 1…. That cost me $3500. When interviewing Waller he said clearly that’s what he wanted from Finche , just learn to chase……………I was rotten for a few days./ I did take the gamble on leaving out red hot favs Mystic Journey & Mr. Quickie.
Caulfield R10 – Naantali $ 11.00
- I’m Backing Naantali for the win & exacta with Bella Martini* Baccarat Baby* Angelic Ruler
- He has run just 5 len behind Sunlight with 56kg in good time & very astute trainer.
- I will also be taking a 5 leg all up play over these 5 races.
So in summary:
5 win bets, possible 5 exactas, 1 x 5 leg all up & 1 x F4.
Good Luck & May the punting god s be with you.