FOR THE LAST WEEK THERE HAVE BEEN JUST TWO WINNERS FROM 13 AND YESTERDAYS TIP OUT AT THE POST WAS BRUISING. 9 PLACES INCLUDING ONE AT $6.30 KEPT OUR PLACE PLAYERS VERY HAPPY. GOOD FOR THEM. HOWEVER PROFIT OVERALL FOR THE WIN HAS BEEN MAINTAINED.
I learnt long ago that you have to maintain your selection methods at times like these and I always look at the place side for inspiration. If the selections aren’t winning but maintaining that long term place ratio then clearly we are on track for the winners to return. Way back in the 80’s my winners were usually a mid to long price but after a long run of outs I switched to choosing the shorter priced selections amongst the analysis I had done for the day. Unfortunately I found that those shorter priced selections didn’t generate sufficient return to justify their selection. It all came home when on one day there were just two prospects. A short priced favourite and a 20/1 shot. I gave the clients the short one and it lost but the 20/1 shot got up and it would have put all my clients into profit right there and then.
One of our new subscribers to the Premium service is doing the Hotshots and his approach is unique. His analysis is based on the price the corporates are offering in the morning and the eventual starting price. Based on his records he told me that our Winform selections drifted in the market 80% of the time even though the selections were winning on level stakes.
His analysis predicted that we would lose 12% long term which is quite contrary to our actual figures. There was a lively argument to be had and his logic escapes me. Personally I invest 50% of my money at Bet365 in the a.m. as they offer to up my return if the price drifts at SP. My “live” experience is that this rarely happens, maybe once or twice a week if that, not that I am backing this particular range of selections his way as many of them pay much better at Best tote or Vicbets Best Of The Best.
I suppose one reason for the prediction is that he invest to take out 5 units profit based on the morning market price so an even money chance gets (on a $10 basis) $60 and a $6 one $10. Or maybe he invests on our rated price where all of our selections that are eligible are priced between $1.10 and $2.
Over many years I have found that this sort of staking simply doesn’t work for our selections as we think of our selections more in terms of RANKING rather than price.
Anyhow the proof is in the pudding as they say and I am interested to see his workouts which apparently on some other selection services he is using , is working well.