I don’t usually recommend place but yesterday I found one that just seemed right. It rated as a winner but I discovered that the time recorded for the race was quite wrong. So while the race was recorded as a race record it was actually not and about 5 lengths out. Still Saxaphone was probably better than yesterdays field but in viewing the video I could see that it is the sort of horse that does not have that acceleration you need to be a sure winner. I recommended one win two place which at the time was $2.25 fixed. It ran 3rd and so guaranteed us a profit and had it won, a bigger profit. Soemtimes its best to save but not necessarily on the one horse. Another way would have been to dutchbet the win and place price. So $45 on the place and $20 on the win with the benefit of knowing exactly the return with the plus being a second win had Saxphone finished first instead of third.
We have a similar situation today with our top rated runner being $2.90 the win and $1.33 the place, it should be closer to $1.4 BUT this runner has an 80% place strike and only 12% win. With two other good chances it’s doubtful I will bet at all.
Finding value seems to be the hardest thing for punters to recognise. So many punters over the years have seen place as a good investment, which it can be in specific cases, but backing Winx for a possible return of $1.02 might have seemed a good idea i only takes one loss to beat that philosophy and most horses aren’t Winx.