We did get some nice results yesterday. It’s true but my personal tally 2 places and one $1.40 win from three bets was a loser. However the regular Saturday punter will have a hard time losing tonight and tomorrow. Most of the corporates and the TAB except in SA and WA are offering money back on your first fixed price bet, some in every Metrolitan race in Australia so I had a thought…..
Winform Top Two gets 30%+ winners in all Metro races and over 40% get placed so if you have two such accounts bet one at one place and the other at the other and you now have a 30% chance of a winning collect and a 40%+ chance of a refund so a 70+ % of a collect in every race you bet in. Many of the money back collects are equivalent to more than what the place would pay if you took an each way bet e.g. $25e/w on a $3 horse that places might give you $37.50 back compared to $50 back .
Anyhow it will be fun to have a shot at it. The downside is that any wins you get will be at the fixed price you took and could be equal at best or less compared to Best Of The Best. The aim is to get punters tied to one provider and in a lot of cases that is exactly what happens. So use the offers wisely.
So let me ask you this. For any top rated Winform selection what is the MOST Likely result if you collect…you might be surprised and it applies to virtually every bet you make no matter who selects it. For runners with a 50% place strike for example the liklhood of a win is 25% so the possibility of second is 15% and 3rd 10%……a sobering thought isn’t it and an eyeopener for place punters as place dividends pay far less than true value. At Best Of The Best the market is only 5% against you but place bets are as much as 30% against you.
Heres our weekend Feature Race
If Niccanova regains its best form it will be hard to beat but I cannot choose just one runner and a 7yo at that. Take it out and the chances bloom so it is more a Quinella/Trifecta race for me.
I expect a big turnaround for Quackerjack for example which will be much better off on a firm track as will Just Thinkin and Subpoenaed.
3:30 Rosehill Race 6 1500m 3YO+ Gp2 HCP na Cval 4.0 $200000
No Form Horse BP Hcap WF Wodds AS Jockey
2 X232X260 Niccanova 8 57.5 1 2.6 7G RBayliss
6 32022X07 Looks Like Elvis 4 54.0 2 7.0 6G JRCollett
13 1445X612 Just Thinkin 5 53.0 3 12.8 4G TClark
11 59243X46 Subpoenaed 2 53.0 4 13.2 4M GBoss
3 1X140X06 Quackerjack 11 57.5 5 13.4 5G JParr