Horsetorque founder Gavin Haynes wrote a book similar to my rating principles which compared various tracks around Australia to one another. He is one of three people (form analysts) I have known who have done the same thing. I am also one of those and my formulas for this are embedded within my Ratings program, the third person is no longer around and I havent even been able to locate his book.
Anyhow, at one of my Seminars in the 90’s (we used to spend a whole week and rate the Saturday races on Friday and attend the races on Saturday before a farewell dinner and then home after Breakfast Sunday) we dutched our top 5 Winform ratings up to that cut out point and two of our group was tasked with one to calculate the bets and one to put them on. Before the day was over though, they retired , complaining that with the high level of wins they also had to wait for correct weight and then line up to collect before doing it all again, and the returns were very profitable but small. At the end of the day we had made 10% on turnover which paid for our Saturday night victory dinner. Each of us had put in $100 and we were never behind.
So in Gavins latest newsletter he suggests taking his top four rated runners and dutching them , outlaying no more than 80%. Our Dutching program om www.stakingkings.com cuts out and does not allow further entries once you reach 80% so thats an effective eway to prune the races also.
Anyhow, the aim was to make a lot of small profits rather than a smaller number of big ones and he demonstrated how this was achieved. It reminded me of our little experiment over 20 years ago. Of course it works. You would have to be a very poor punter to fail at this but most would not make the effort because of the average small returns but the amazing thing is that they all add up.
These Doomben selections are in number order, not rated but looking at the prices you can see which races could be okay. (I may ducth these at Best Of The Best on vicbet.com and hope on average it will work out. I am using the morning fixed prices on TAB to get the %’s.
22/06/2022 12:33 Doomben 1 1 Blue Ray wf1 $5 (3) $20 1,5 and 9 represent 80% so leave out 2 and 3
22/06/2022 12:33 Doomben 1 2 Maple Door wf1 $7 (4)
22/06/2022 12:33 Doomben 1 3 Bold Ransom wf1 $9.5 (5)
22/06/2022 12:33 Doomben 1 5 Vaccine wf1 $1.95 (2) $55 1st AT $2.80 (BOB)RETURN $154 OUTLAY $55 + @20 +5=$80 profit $74 quit now if you want to.
22/06/2022 12:33 Doomben 1 9 Pretty Flash wf1 $23 (1) $5
Race 2 is only 6 runners so delete
RACE 3 IS A LOSS so minus $70
22/06/2022 1:43: Doomben 3 3 Magic Mikey wf1 (1) $5 altogether our top 5 is around 60% so dutch them all
22/06/2022 1:43: Doomben 3 5 Yangari wf1 (4) $ $4.8
22/06/2022 1:43: Doomben 3 6 Cee Eye Cee wf1 (2) $21
22/06/2022 1:43: Doomben 3 9 Fridas Time wf1 (3) $34
22/06/2022 1:43: Doomben 3 10 Military Men wf1 (5) $13
With Seleq at $1.85 we take just 1 and 6 which is likely 70%
22/06/2022 2:18: Doomben 4 1 Seleque wf1 (2) $1.85 WINNER AT $1.90 PROFIT $45
22/06/2022 2:18: Doomben 4 2 Bold Warrior wf1
22/06/2022 2:18: Doomben 4 3 Sneak Preview wf1
22/06/2022 2:18: Doomben 4 5 The Irons wf1
22/06/2022 2:18: Doomben 4 6 Azarmin wf1 (1) $9
Here we can dutch all 5 loss $35
22/06/2022 2:53: Doomben 5 1 Badgers Nuts wf1 (2) $6.5
22/06/2022 2:53: Doomben 5 4 The Power Of One wf1 (5) $15
22/06/2022 2:53: Doomben 5 6 Vivyn wf1 ((3) $9
22/06/2022 2:53: Doomben 5 9 Fear The Night wf1 (1) $34
22/06/2022 2:53: Doomben 5 11 Kiki Coco wf1 (4) $81
I’m sure you get the idea. Ill result these tomorrow. Its not a particularly good meeting but it is these average races that produce average results which is what we want but also it is a very small sample.
History tells me we can expect 65% to 70% collects with the winners prices averaging around $6.50 to $7 on average. Last month was 67% wins at $6.42
Placing your selections at expected SP produced an av price of $5.47 and a level stake profit of just under 1%. Not bad for this time of year. Anyhow, the smart move is to quit when in front which will happen most days if you keep away from the really wet tracks.
DOOMBEN RACE 6 OUTLAY $%70 RETURN $105PROFIT $35
22/06/2022 3:28: Doomben 6 3 Castile wf1
22/06/2022 3:28: Doomben 6 4 Pentito wf1
22/06/2022 3:28: Doomben 6 6 Cudyado wf1
22/06/2022 3:28: Doomben 6 9 Karaoke Queen wf1
22/06/2022 3:28: Doomben 6 12 Situation Room wf1
doomben 7 outlay $65 return $110 profit $45
22/06/2022 4:03: Doomben 7 1 Deference wf1
22/06/2022 4:03: Doomben 7 4 Thunder Mania wf1
22/06/2022 4:03: Doomben 7 5 El Vencedor wf1
22/06/2022 4:03: Doomben 7 8 Pascal wf1
22/06/2022 4:03: Doomben 7 13 Sir Piccolo wf1
DOOMBEN RACE 8 $55 OUT RETURN $100 PROFIT $45
22/06/2022 4:34: Doomben 8 4 Magnus Bellagio wf1
22/06/2022 4:34: Doomben 8 6 Applecross wf1
22/06/2022 4:34: Doomben 8 9 Lemon Duchess wf1
22/06/2022 4:34: Doomben 8 10 Love Yers All wf1
22/06/2022 4:34: Doomben 8 12 Count The Coin wf1
My 2000 Book and updates of Make Racing Pay looks into a lot of this type of strategy. $144 PROFIT ON DAY WITH 75% RSR just above average.