ANOTHER SCAPEGOAT MORE TO COME

You have to feel for the AFL player who dobbed himself in for having $36 worth of bets in total using a friends betting account. The AFL have made such a huge example of him the same as the NRL did some time ago for a guy who had  a few $10 bets.

ITS ALWAYS THE SAME. These organisations make big headlines but don’t do a thing about all the insiders who continue to bet big dollars, and I mean the physios, trainers, “spies” employed by clubs to get the inside info who is in who has niggling injuries, who is out and so on.

Every club wants to know where the oppositions weaknesses are and so do the corporate bookies. Game intelligence is just a part of the mix and there is plenty around but you know what? They will NEVER unless they are somehow forced to by a whistle blower, publicise the big “players”, the ones who reallly make the big money out of the games.

I just can’t believe how gullible they think the public is.

Anyhow, Racing is our bag , and there have been some big name trainers caught using substances and testing new “undetectable”  drugs that enhance or slow performance. Sure 99% of the industry is totally honest but there is that element out there. And besides, some of the tips coming out of stables are based only on the knowledge of their runners. I have more faith in form analysis than information.

A small number of runners each day will be “information” but with the rest running to their ability, actual proven form is the best guide. What ounters should do is put their faith in form on Good tracks and give meetings like todays Heavy 10 Warnambool meeting a wide berth. Good luck today.

ROS IS BACK I’M BACK

Apart from a pause for a flu shot this morning I am around all day. Ros came home last night, as did I and tests confirmed that Ros had had a blood clot which has now broken up but also tests suggest that some of her medications may be conflicting, so after being monitored with some heavy pain killers has now been referred back to her GP to sort it out.

The good thing is that everything else is all clear apart from the physical things such as bursitis and arthritis, conditions which affect everyone over the age of 50 and some even younger.

Today we have four race meetings but I will leave the heavy 10 track at Nowra alone. Tamworth (good4) Ballarat synthetic and Townsville (soft5) should be okay to bet on. I have 4 races that are interesting for a race to race and Daily Double at Ballarat. R6 1, R72, R8 1 and Race 9 8 and 9 Good luck.

YOU NEVER KNOW WHATS NEXT?

While Ive been attending business meetings, Ros has been home feeling unwell, well for at least a week or so but has avoided going to the doctor or telling anyone and they say men are the ones who do this.

So today she finally admitted the problem and went to emergency. It’s not life threatening but at least now something is being done. It does mean that I am 1000 kms away and cant get there any faster but our daughters are both there with her so she will be happy with that.

Ill be back tonight and hopefully they will have established the cause and can start treatment.

Anyhow no one in the office today or probably tomorrow. All the info will be online as usual, I had already done it.

On a more upbeat note we had two hotshots and two placed out of 4 selections yesterday, the Best Bet won, The Daily FeATURE race won and we had a Top two winnar at Mt Gambier yesterday at $61 so yes the Amelia longshots are still winning.

Good luck everyone.

HIGHSTRIKERS OUT AFTER TWO RACES

It didn’t take long. A miss in the first at Rosehill then a $6+ winner at Ipswich. Quit when inn fron and we have done it again. I suspect that wouldn’t hold back many of our punters though. Pity, the rest of the day was more difficult although we did find the winner of the Ipswich Cup. One of the three specials won and another second.

I noticed that although we had many winners overall (we dont do worse than soft 5) most runners placed rather than won. It happens like that some times.  Our Feature races missed although Beregerac was in our selections.

Ill be having a good look for a Feature today but plenty of wet tracks about so we could end up being on a minor race. We’ll see. Good luck today.

CORPORATES KILLING OUR PUNTERS/All info posted by 9.14 Sat

In Adelaide yesterday I spent time with a very smart semi professional punter who shall remain nameless in case his name is scanned ( the enemy, online corporate bookmakers, do have intelligence gathering to protect themselves from winning punters ).

One pro who I spoke with earlier this week , placed or tried to anyways, a bet on a race at $3.60 . He got told the price was now $3.20 so as he wanted to be on he aid okay but then , the price was turned down to $3.00 and finally $2.90 before his bet was accepted. So the general public got $3.60 (it won) but our pro got $2.90 or do without.

I personally get the same treatment, or was from William Hill before they were taken over. Strangely enough, Beteasy which did the taking over, is happy to take my bets without reduction. William Hill, when they were still operating, effectively took away my profit margin, by offering lower prices.

Anyhow, our semi pro bets a lot smaller these days so bets more for something to do than making a living, (he has an independent income stream) and even bets a few $5 bets for amusement and even these are slashed, such is his reputation.

Ladbrokes closed my account a week after I opened it even though I lost $400 that week. Their reason “One of our bookmakers i.e. price assessors, knows who you are and so we believe this account is not suitable (for them I assume)”. Sportsbet ntified me years ago they would no longer accept any exotic bets from me i.e. Quinellas, Trifectas etc and any all up or parlay bets.

Tabcorp generally  wont take fixed price bets from me, even for a dollar, unless they are referred to a supervisor first, and that process itself stops me from getting on last minute. Yet Utab , owned by Tabcorp, has no problems and will let me on for any amount except in a weird way, if I place a fixed price placebet and then try to bac the same runner for a win, they provide a rerated price based  on the fact that I have taken that place bet.

For example. I back a $101 shot at $25 to place and then when I go back to bet for a win my price is now $80 and vice versa of course.

Pouring rain in Adelaide I write  but unexpected. Time to head for my Melbourne bound plane. Spoke also this week to several of the attendees at my 2014 Professional Punting Seminar at Raffertys.

FIVE INA ROW PLUS $474 QUINELLA

It wasn’t a record Quinella but it was big in the QUIRINDI Open handicap. Our top rated runner rated $2.20 won from our 2nd rated runner rated $7 which started at $201 . The Exacta was $721 not that I would have taken it.

Our last 5 Daily Feature Races have found the winner and today was no exception. Here’s what we said about the winner Shijin has been right on the money in recent starts and the $6 on offer is remarkable. We also liked another runner e/w but it lets us down however the price on Shijin actually got out as much as $6.50.

I head off to Adelaide tomorrow then Melbourne for the weekend for a round of meetings with insiders in Racing and sport. Back in the office Tuesday afternoon as my morning is taken up with my annual check up but clearly I am still here and in good health. I amgetting a new vehicle though. One of its features is that it knows when you are drifting off for a minisleep and takes action. I reckon you could get a surprise if heading down the freeway at 110kmh.

SOooo. I called DJ today  to let him no he was on notice to find another Daily Feature winner tomorrow. Tonight I posted the three main Metro meetings on site for subscribers. See my sleepy look?

 

SO HOW DID WE GO WITH OUR PUBLIC HOLIDAY STRATEGY?

Heavy tracks at Mornington and Ballin and a soft 7 at Cairns have limited our options. Randick is a soft 6 and may improve with fine weather today but I don’t think so. That leaves a Good 4 track at Balaklava and so anything I will do today will be concentrated there. Favourites at Balaklava have a worse win rate than almost anywhere in Australia at only 30%  and av div of $2.90 and the Winform Top Two has a similar strike rate but av div of $5.88 and so it is logical that Winform which finds lots of longer priced horses would produce these results but here’s the key.

Winform top two rated runners that are also the favourite have a win strike of 44%. That’s a big improvement on the normal run of favs at this big track.

Now HR2D has a top two strike rate of 44% also but at $3.38, however it too has an improved strike rate of 45% wins if the selection is favourite.

The figures I am looking at are the past two years so today coule be a big losing day and still not affect the overall database but it is a good guide is it not? And heres the kicker.

If favourite AND HR2D AND Winform top two the win strike is just under 50% wins! I rest my case.

Have a good day.

So how did the strategy go? Both strategies at Balaklava were successful. It was an easy way to make money. It shows that there are workable angles for most tracks although some offer no standout opportunities like Balaklava. Today Tuesday we have Quirindi Corowa and Pakenham synthetic which I may have mentioned before, has been excellent for Winform top two which are favourite.

MANY UPDATES TODAY

hI eVERYONE EARLY STAR AT eAGLE farM, TOO EARLY FOR ME. Ive just updated WA where Carnavon is off, Darwin and Belmont which is now confirmed as a soft 6.

 

Check your pages for the updated ratings which are now up to date.

Good luck today. I am hoepfu;l of a First 4 in the Straddie and good luck to our Members who have their horses in the Brisbane Cup

 

NO BLOODY INTERNET.WHATS THE PROBLEM

So while in Brisbane I had planned meetings, and of course wanted to updaTE the diary but the hotel interent was simply not working and that usually means I can use my Personla Hotspot but NO. It worked on the first day but not the next so no update here. I was getting access on the phone and Ipad but no form downloads.

Ive had the problem before then taken my laptop and the phone to my IT guy where it worked perfectly of course.

I did attend the game at Suncorp but the atmosphere was lacking until the Maroons hit the front and from then it was deafening.

Many of our Members couldnt lose. They simply had to back both sides as you could get money back if your side got 6 points in front and lost so if you backed the other side elsewhere, worst case scenario was a get square but with NSW getting paid for leading at half time and Qld winning they got paid twice. Beauty! And this deal is available in one way or another for most AFL and NRL games. Hard to lose.

I noticed we just missed out on the Sandown Quaddie Weds. Three legs incl a $26 winner and a 2nd at $7. Woulda been a beauty but with the heavy track I would have been out anyway.

Does anyone have feedback on the  Trio?? I havnt had a chance to look but im sure many of our Members have given it a go. Worth it? Or not?

 

 

I CORRECTLY JUDGED…

Yes, I did perceive that todays feature race would produce a long priced result but alas I couldnt get that 2nd placed horse into the Quinella. Nevertheless, assuming our Members , well a lot of them, have a bit of nous, I am sure a few would have backed our 3rd rated runner as we could have backed all three, dutch bet or level stakes  and still made a wonderful profit.

Anyhow, I have had a couple of meetings up here in Brisbane and had some apre time so I went looking for Alland Music which Mr Google told me was in the Queen St Mall. Apparentally not. JBHIFI occupy that space now so I called the number to see if I could find where they have moved to…and the answer was “hello, this is Bunnings??” Well I guess I cant recommend retail music shops as a good investment, I should have known this from many years ago when I stopped the horse tipping business I had when I opened my own music shop. It took me about ten years to realise that it wasnt the go and so I went back to the Winform Ratings business.

Also, Ive had some feedback from my mention of Zippay Afterpay and co in the Newsletter. One of our Members is an investment adviser and suggested that perhaps ASIC would not like me doing that. However the other feedback I have had is from Members who appreciated the tip last year and have done very well and of course like anything, it is you that decide what to do. I’m just telling you what I have done and my opinion.

The interesting thing is that there are some well known financial commentators who have been sending out very negative ideas about Afterpay and Zippay and consequently the prices have gone down quite significantly in the past week, much ,much more then the general market.

Think what you like but my thoughts are that forcing the price down means that speculators, not naming any names, have been able to pick up millions of shares at well below last weeks prices.

The truth is that all of the worlds financial markets are manipulated so the secret is to stick to those companies that do have a genuinely unique position. As one of the core retailers in Australia offering EFTPOS for the first time I was in a position to “know the future” and as Chairman of a 200 store strong retail group in the past I am well positioned to know that the BNPL sector WILL BE the next Visa and Mastercard but not without competition and not without some fightback by the entrenched.

Grant passed ona suggestion to me. He is doing very well on Betfair with the Golf markets as he says “there is lots of depth” So for those of you who have an opinion it might be a way to go even though I also know that Betfair markets are also manipulated as are all Racing markets too.

Does it worry me? No. It’s all a part of the game and as long as people are playing it there will be others doing their best to take advantage.

Just by the way. There is a stock advisor that is very very focussed on getting paid memberships. They even advise that they have “skin in the game” and they are investing their own money and yes I believe they are, but I also believe that money is part of their profit from the financial advice they are selling.

To be honest, their selections, they don’t have many, have been mostly profitable but the best way to treat advice is to accept it, analyse it yourself and see if you can match the logic. Then act. Cant wait for sailing season…

Another hit for Garry?