Archive for category: Diary

You have to feel for the AFL player who dobbed himself in for having $36 worth of bets in total using a friends betting account. The AFL have made such a huge example of him the same as the NRL did some time ago for a guy who had  a few $10 bets.

ITS ALWAYS THE SAME. These organisations make big headlines but don’t do a thing about all the insiders who continue to bet big dollars, and I mean the physios, trainers, “spies” employed by clubs to get the inside info who is in who has niggling injuries, who is out and so on.

Every club wants to know where the oppositions weaknesses are and so do the corporate bookies. Game intelligence is just a part of the mix and there is plenty around but you know what? They will NEVER unless they are somehow forced to by a whistle blower, publicise the big “players”, the ones who reallly make the big money out of the games.

I just can’t believe how gullible they think the public is.

Anyhow, Racing is our bag , and there have been some big name trainers caught using substances and testing new “undetectable”  drugs that enhance or slow performance. Sure 99% of the industry is totally honest but there is that element out there. And besides, some of the tips coming out of stables are based only on the knowledge of their runners. I have more faith in form analysis than information.

A small number of runners each day will be “information” but with the rest running to their ability, actual proven form is the best guide. What ounters should do is put their faith in form on Good tracks and give meetings like todays Heavy 10 Warnambool meeting a wide berth. Good luck today.

While Ive been attending business meetings, Ros has been home feeling unwell, well for at least a week or so but has avoided going to the doctor or telling anyone and they say men are the ones who do this.

So today she finally admitted the problem and went to emergency. It’s not life threatening but at least now something is being done. It does mean that I am 1000 kms away and cant get there any faster but our daughters are both there with her so she will be happy with that.

Ill be back tonight and hopefully they will have established the cause and can start treatment.

Anyhow no one in the office today or probably tomorrow. All the info will be online as usual, I had already done it.

On a more upbeat note we had two hotshots and two placed out of 4 selections yesterday, the Best Bet won, The Daily FeATURE race won and we had a Top two winnar at Mt Gambier yesterday at $61 so yes the Amelia longshots are still winning.

Good luck everyone.

In Adelaide yesterday I spent time with a very smart semi professional punter who shall remain nameless in case his name is scanned ( the enemy, online corporate bookmakers, do have intelligence gathering to protect themselves from winning punters ).

One pro who I spoke with earlier this week , placed or tried to anyways, a bet on a race at $3.60 . He got told the price was now $3.20 so as he wanted to be on he aid okay but then , the price was turned down to $3.00 and finally $2.90 before his bet was accepted. So the general public got $3.60 (it won) but our pro got $2.90 or do without.

I personally get the same treatment, or was from William Hill before they were taken over. Strangely enough, Beteasy which did the taking over, is happy to take my bets without reduction. William Hill, when they were still operating, effectively took away my profit margin, by offering lower prices.

Anyhow, our semi pro bets a lot smaller these days so bets more for something to do than making a living, (he has an independent income stream) and even bets a few $5 bets for amusement and even these are slashed, such is his reputation.

Ladbrokes closed my account a week after I opened it even though I lost $400 that week. Their reason “One of our bookmakers i.e. price assessors, knows who you are and so we believe this account is not suitable (for them I assume)”. Sportsbet ntified me years ago they would no longer accept any exotic bets from me i.e. Quinellas, Trifectas etc and any all up or parlay bets.

Tabcorp generally  wont take fixed price bets from me, even for a dollar, unless they are referred to a supervisor first, and that process itself stops me from getting on last minute. Yet Utab , owned by Tabcorp, has no problems and will let me on for any amount except in a weird way, if I place a fixed price placebet and then try to bac the same runner for a win, they provide a rerated price based  on the fact that I have taken that place bet.

For example. I back a $101 shot at $25 to place and then when I go back to bet for a win my price is now $80 and vice versa of course.

Pouring rain in Adelaide I write  but unexpected. Time to head for my Melbourne bound plane. Spoke also this week to several of the attendees at my 2014 Professional Punting Seminar at Raffertys.

Heavy tracks at Mornington and Ballin and a soft 7 at Cairns have limited our options. Randick is a soft 6 and may improve with fine weather today but I don’t think so. That leaves a Good 4 track at Balaklava and so anything I will do today will be concentrated there. Favourites at Balaklava have a worse win rate than almost anywhere in Australia at only 30%  and av div of $2.90 and the Winform Top Two has a similar strike rate but av div of $5.88 and so it is logical that Winform which finds lots of longer priced horses would produce these results but here’s the key.

Winform top two rated runners that are also the favourite have a win strike of 44%. That’s a big improvement on the normal run of favs at this big track.

Now HR2D has a top two strike rate of 44% also but at $3.38, however it too has an improved strike rate of 45% wins if the selection is favourite.

The figures I am looking at are the past two years so today coule be a big losing day and still not affect the overall database but it is a good guide is it not? And heres the kicker.

If favourite AND HR2D AND Winform top two the win strike is just under 50% wins! I rest my case.

Have a good day.

So how did the strategy go? Both strategies at Balaklava were successful. It was an easy way to make money. It shows that there are workable angles for most tracks although some offer no standout opportunities like Balaklava. Today Tuesday we have Quirindi Corowa and Pakenham synthetic which I may have mentioned before, has been excellent for Winform top two which are favourite.

So while in Brisbane I had planned meetings, and of course wanted to updaTE the diary but the hotel interent was simply not working and that usually means I can use my Personla Hotspot but NO. It worked on the first day but not the next so no update here. I was getting access on the phone and Ipad but no form downloads.

Ive had the problem before then taken my laptop and the phone to my IT guy where it worked perfectly of course.

I did attend the game at Suncorp but the atmosphere was lacking until the Maroons hit the front and from then it was deafening.

Many of our Members couldnt lose. They simply had to back both sides as you could get money back if your side got 6 points in front and lost so if you backed the other side elsewhere, worst case scenario was a get square but with NSW getting paid for leading at half time and Qld winning they got paid twice. Beauty! And this deal is available in one way or another for most AFL and NRL games. Hard to lose.

I noticed we just missed out on the Sandown Quaddie Weds. Three legs incl a $26 winner and a 2nd at $7. Woulda been a beauty but with the heavy track I would have been out anyway.

Does anyone have feedback on the  Trio?? I havnt had a chance to look but im sure many of our Members have given it a go. Worth it? Or not?