RACE ASSESSMENTS – EXPLANATION NOTES
Early Speed & Position Map
Race Shape Forecast
Race Winning Standard (W-STD)
Race Clarity
Assessed Price
Profile Appeal
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+ – =
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Betting Strategies
ROSEHILL RACE ASSESMENTS – 20 May 2023
A forecast of the likely speed distribution in the race, early versus late, relative to what is typical for a race of that rating standard. The
first figure is the forecast early speed in lengths (to the 600m), and the second is the late speed (last 600m.) Example: (3.0) / +3.0
means the race is forecast to be 3 lengths slower than typical to the 600m mark and 3 lengths faster than typical over the final 600m.
The combination of a horses settling position and the race shape has important implications for its potential to run up to the rating
level needed to win.
Based on our WFA Performance Ratings, this figure is the minimum level of performance (adjusted for weights carried) that we expect
will be needed to be a potential race winner. It considers the recent & peak form of key runners and the historical standard of similar
races. While it is difficult to forecast the individual performance of each horse, it is usually easy to reach conclusions such as “at least
one horse in this race will likely run to a 93 rating or better.” Our race analysis focuses on the potential for each horse to run to the
race-winning standard.
Similar past meetings suggest no obvious pattern. If there is to be a pattern, it may be some advantage to pace
/ handy runners within 3 lengths at the 600m mark.
Reflects the level of clarity around assessing chances in the race. Races with many potential winners that are difficult to separate with
confidence and no clear betting appeal are poor clarity. A lack of clarity can also come from uncertainty around the recent form,
potential improvement, or regression of key contenders and factors such as track condition, pattern, and distance suitability. We
recommend NOT TO BET in races of poor clarity.
Shows our estimation of the horse’s winning chance in both price (e.g. $3.20) and percentage (e.g. 31%.) It’s essential to recognise that
good betting is far more than comparing assessed prices to market prices. A horse above the assessed market price isn’t automatically
a value bet and vice-versa. Such simple and old-fashioned philosophies are full of flawed assumptions. Price is important, but our
philosophy is very much profile considerations first (see below), then price considerations.
Analysing the strike rate and betting returns from thousands of past horses with common traits in their form, ratings and speed map,
among other things, shows that the market tends to overestimate the importance of some factors and underestimate others. A horse’s
profile is the sum of these characteristics, with some consideration of the current market price vs our assessment, indicatating its
potential to be under or over-valued by the betting market during trading.
Negative profile: Has key traits that are typically overvalued by betting markets.
Strong negative profile: Multiple traits that historically show a significant betting loss.
Shows the forecast position of each horse shortly after the start (100 to 150m into the race.) Our betting philosophy is to focus
primarily on horses that map well within 3L of the lead and avoid horses likely to settle well back, even if they look like good
winning chances. Why? On average, they are much poorer betting value than horses settling closer. A study of NSW & VIC Saturday
metro races since 2017 shows that horses up to $5 in the market that were 4+ lengths back from the lead at the 800m mark had a
22.6% SR and lost 21% on betting turnover. The market average for all horses up to $5 is a 27% SR and 4.5% loss on turnover. The stats
are worse for backmarkers longer in price.
Positive profile: Has multiple traits that are historically underestimated by the market.
We advise focusing on horses with a positive / somewhat positive profile in races marked average or good clarity. If you prefer a more
selective approach, stick to the ++ horses. If you want more volume, expand to the +- horses. No one approach will provide the optimal
result every day. Our comments will provide more context if betting should be influenced by what happens closer to race time in the
market. Remember to always bet within your means and keep your winning chance on each race in perspective (e.g. the % cHANCE)
Of course this info comes in a much clearer format. Ive actually taking the wording and the info.
3:17 20May23 Doomben Race 7 2000m Gp1 WFA
Race Shape forecast: /
Assessed Chance
# Horse %
1 Zaaki 57%
2 Numerian 10%
3 Huetor 8%
5 Zeyrek 7%
11 Duais 4%
12 Atishu 4%
13 Kovalica 3%
7 Nonconformist 3%
4 No Compromise 2%
6 Diamil 2%
8 Bankers Choice 1%
9 Palmetto 1%
Of course there is much more than you see here. It all comes in a very clear colour format. Assments for each runner, peak ratings by Daniel O’Sullivan etc.
Todays info is the Doomben Cup, The goodwood in Adelaide plus all races at Rosehill and Flemington
