Well, I couldnt quite make it for Saturday night so my random thoughts are here. A bit more, no a lot more, to do and I will get a video up Sunday a.m.
THE 2024 MELBOURNE CUP
By
Garry Robinson
THE CUP RUNNERS THAT HAVE THE MOST RELEVANT FORM FOR THE CUP
| FLEM 05Oct24 2520m Soft6 BART CUMMINGS Group 3 $505,325 ($305,325) Jordan Childs 57kg Barrier 3 Rtg 104 2nd Point King (IRE) 55.5kg, 3rd Amade (IRE) 55.5kg 2:41.02 (600m 36.58), 0.2L, 1st@800m, 1st@400m, $21/$19/$20/$21 |
Just Fine was dead last in the Moonee Valley Cup but gets a penalty of 0.5kg for a win in the slow run Bart Cummings over 2520.
Conclusion may need to get used up to get on the pace. Not for me.
Land Legend gets a 1kg penalty, won the Metrop in good time and goes up to 53kg so 2 lengths over the 3200 of the Cup and could run 3.21.7 in The CUP . Land Legend ran a long 3rd in the Caulfield Cup.
| From 18 will need luck. In Oct last year ran an amazing race over 2600m on pace. |
Okita Soushi ran 11th in last years Cup but the Moonee Valley Cup was a great run and now has a 1kg penalty but will be down 3kgs on that run.
Worked out to 3200 metres that is 3.21.7 for the 3200 metres. 10th at the barrier and has been converted to an on pacer THIS YEAR.
| GEEL 23Oct24 2400m Good3 GEEL CUP Group 3 $500,000 ($300,000) Craig Williams 54kg Barrier 9 Rtg 96 2nd Interpretation (IRE) 54kg, 3rd Muramasa 56.5kg 2:27.98 (600m 34.90), 2.25L, 7th@800m, 5th@400m, $14/$13/$12/$11 |
One Smooth Operator has won up to 3300 metres and won the Geelong Cup in 2:28 with 56kg but drops over 5kgs or to run 3:20:2 over the 3200. The best rated so far but Geelong was a rare Good 3. Still it can be a good guide and it wouldn’t be the first time a Geelong Cup winner went on to win glory in Melbourne.
Flemington will be firm and It can take a spot from 12 as it will likely take a sit one out in midfield. .
Interpretation is at a weight disadvantage after 2nd at Geelong and barrier 14 wont be a problem if it can take a sit.
Similarly The Map is out in 23 and will struggle to take a sit although a) it must get a firm track and has won to 2800.
Fancy Man has similar problems in 19. And prefers a soft track.
Sharp N Smart Was Good behind Okita Soushi at Moonee Valley can race midfield from barrier 15? And weight drop does not get it ahead of Okita Soushi
Zardozi form barrier 4 cab sit on the pace and has good Metropolitan form ran 4th at Caulfield and had a fitness run on Derby Day. Best form has been on the soft Barrier 4 will help.
Some hope at aprice
Buckaroo did not finish strongly enough in the Caulfield Cup to justify favouritism for this race. Will try hard but not for me.
Absurde will stay all day but 7th last year and will struggle to improve.
Vauban came off excellent form last year but didn’t run on in the Cup.
Form is not as impressive this year so don’t expect it to change much. Gets in with a luxury weight the same as last year so you never know.
Circle Of Fire can run 3200m and races on pace but from barrier 24?? A 5 length penalty right there,
Warp Speed is the odd one out. From Japan and hopeless on the wet Caulfield track and could visibly be seen wallowing in the wet.
Hard and Fast is the name of the game in Japan. Last run in 3200 there was near last in a high class field. Times suggest as much as 10 lengths faster than anything else . Has barrier 3 and has had a few races where it sat on the speed.
Sea King won the Bendigo Cup impressively although not the same class as this. $11
See U Tomorrow
