Dear Garry, I am writing to ask you to assess the strategy I have developed for my betting.
Since I retired 2 years ago I have spent a lot of time and money trying to come to grips with my failings as a punter
These are essentially 1. Excessive expectations as to the returns I can expect, and a lack of capital.
2. A lack of patience with methods that face long runs of outs
3. An inability to be confident operating under pressure if betting race to race. This is compounded by a tremor in my right hand ( my mouse hand ) which becomes almost uncontrollable under stress.
4 A lack of sufficient skill to make independent judgements about a horses chances.
Having to pay for ratings or services out of my pension I tried a number of relatively low cost services. None of them can even get close to your HR2D service, which is not that much more expensive than those other services.
So I have subscribed to HR2D and trialled the C Plan over the last week, with results that have been exceptional, with a 60% Race Strike Rate at $2.00 av div., and 12% POT.
This was from some 74 races, so while a reasonable sample I am assuming that it may be an aberration. So I am basing my strategy on strike rate of 50% at between $2.1 & $2.2. The better price is something I am confident of, as an examination of the bets made shows that I missed many opportunities to take advantage of bets boost offered, and taking fixed prices on mid price selections which consistently paid better at Top Tote+.
So to my strategy, which is to follow the C Plan using HR2D. 1. Eliminate any meeting on Heavy tracks.
2. Eliminate any event that has little or no form
3 Eliminate events where both are over $4
4. Eliminate those events where I cannot get at least 50% profit
5 Eliminate events where i cannot get at least $2.25 fixed on the favorite.
6 Eliminate events where one selection is scratched.
I have a bank of $5000 that I can afford to lose. Looking at the way Money factory handles the bet progression, I have broken the $5000 into 5 X $1000 banks.
I am using 3 columns, with a target of $50 per column and a base bet of $10. With around 60+ races a week at an average outlay per race of $15, this should give me turnover of $900-$1000 per week. With a profit of between $90 & $100 per week, this would seem to be in line with some of the examples you have shown on your site from time to time. If at any time there is a breakdown in the system and I have drawn down more than 70% of a bank, I will close off, total my capital, divide by 5 and recalculate my bets. Even if this happened a couple of times a
year I would still be ahead.
The 3 columns enables me to make calm, unhurried decisions as I am betting from 10 to 30 minutes out. This does not seem to have a negative effect on my results; if anything I am probably making better decisions. I would point out that the decisions made are based solely
on the structure of the market at the time, not on any opinion I may have of any runners chances. As you have pointed out ” swings and roundabouts” seem to take care of any variance that may occur.
Sorry to be so long winded but putting everything in writing has sharpened my focus on what I am doing.
Does this make sense? Your opinion is valued.
ED: Re: Betting Strategy
The strategy is generally in line with recommendations.the average. Dividend is higher than expected so good selecting on the right comparison. Always seek the best price. Why not change your mouse to left handed operation. Can’t remember how to do this but easy and google will tell you. I did this years ago when I broke my arm. I take Money Factory to the end But in your case with 3 columns it might see one Colomn get out of hand, if this happens you can credit a good result to it to get it under control. Anyhow that’s what some members have done. HR2d can fluctuate beteeen 34% wins to 60% plus at at times so just take care and all the best. I might highlight your strategy for othe members as we do have quite a few since we reduced the price. Garry