To get a Cup winner these days you have to suspend all your natural instincts. You have to back these imports first up or second up, you have to try to watch all the videos and you have to guess whats likely to happen now. On proven Australian form Yucatan has to be included even though you do not know if he can get 3200 but it certainly looks like it and you KNOW that he had a minor injury after that win. Is he fully recovered, on the surface yes but do we KNOW? Muntahaa won the Ebor over 2800 in track record time plus York is known as a fast track. We know he can run the 3200 then. Can he win first up? A Price Of Arran is an import but CAN run time here. Chestnut Coat maybe didnt like the wet tarck at Caulfield but will be second up and has run 3200 time that would win any Cup ever run. Sir Charles Road has had plenty of time here and placed in the Sydney Cup. The there’s the barrier. The jockeys unused to the local style and add numerous other details. I used to ignore the imports altogether and they have won so few at their first start here, you could ignore those too. Not anymore. So what we end up with is best guess and Yucatan is so short in the market it doesnt leave much room for much else. Here’s Efficient winning, oh and I will have a vdieo up later this morning.