SO HOW DID WE GO WITH OUR PUBLIC HOLIDAY STRATEGY?

Heavy tracks at Mornington and Ballin and a soft 7 at Cairns have limited our options. Randick is a soft 6 and may improve with fine weather today but I don’t think so. That leaves a Good 4 track at Balaklava and so anything I will do today will be concentrated there. Favourites at Balaklava have a worse win rate than almost anywhere in Australia at only 30%  and av div of $2.90 and the Winform Top Two has a similar strike rate but av div of $5.88 and so it is logical that Winform which finds lots of longer priced horses would produce these results but here’s the key.

Winform top two rated runners that are also the favourite have a win strike of 44%. That’s a big improvement on the normal run of favs at this big track.

Now HR2D has a top two strike rate of 44% also but at $3.38, however it too has an improved strike rate of 45% wins if the selection is favourite.

The figures I am looking at are the past two years so today coule be a big losing day and still not affect the overall database but it is a good guide is it not? And heres the kicker.

If favourite AND HR2D AND Winform top two the win strike is just under 50% wins! I rest my case.

Have a good day.

So how did the strategy go? Both strategies at Balaklava were successful. It was an easy way to make money. It shows that there are workable angles for most tracks although some offer no standout opportunities like Balaklava. Today Tuesday we have Quirindi Corowa and Pakenham synthetic which I may have mentioned before, has been excellent for Winform top two which are favourite.

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